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公司动态 行业资讯
光伏:行业规范提标 加速新技术产业化
发布者:admin   发布时间:2019-06-16   阅读:1960次

行业(ye)门槛提高(gao)(gao),提高(gao)(gao)行业(ye)发展(zhan)水平:5月(yue)29日,工信(xin)(xin)部(bu)印发了《光(guang)伏网信(xin)(xin)彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)行业(ye)规范条件(jian)(jian)(2020年(nian)本)》(征求意见(jian)(jian)稿(gao)(gao)),这是(shi)自2013年(nian)首(shou)次发布(bu)以来(lai),第三(san)次修(xiu)订(ding)版(ban)征求意见(jian)(jian)。与2018年(nian)版(ban)本对比,本次意见(jian)(jian)稿(gao)(gao)在电池组件(jian)(jian)转(zhuan)换效率、组件(jian)(jian)衰减率、网信(xin)(xin)彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)能(neng)耗等方(fang)面(mian)均有更为(wei)严格的(de)规定,有助(zhu)于引导产(chan)(chan)业(ye)加(jia)快转(zhuan)型(xing)升(sheng)级和结构(gou)调(diao)整,加(jia)强光(guang)伏企(qi)业(ye)技(ji)术创新、提高(gao)(gao)产(chan)(chan)品质量、降低生产(chan)(chan)成本、加(jia)快落后产(chan)(chan)能(neng)出清。征求意见(jian)(jian)稿(gao)(gao)主(zhu)要(yao)从(cong)三(san)个方(fang)面(mian)阐(chan)述,①生产(chan)(chan)网信(xin)(xin)彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)与网信(xin)(xin)彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)设立(li)方(fang)面(mian),严格控(kong)制新上单纯扩(kuo)大产(chan)(chan)能(neng)的(de)光(guang)伏网信(xin)(xin)彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)网信(xin)(xin)彩(cai)票(piao)(piao);②工艺技(ji)术方(fang)面(mian),电池组件(jian)(jian)的(de)转(zhuan)换效率显著(zhu)提升(sheng);③资源(yuan)网信(xin)(xin)彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)利用及耗能(neng)方(fang)面(mian),各环节耗能(neng)要(yao)求更高(gao)(gao)。

大(da)尺(chi)寸(cun)硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)助力(li)(li)行业(ye)降本增效(xiao)。在(zai)光伏(fu)产(chan)业(ye)链中,硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)是核(he)心环(huan)(huan)节(jie),硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)尺(chi)寸(cun)由(you)最初的(de)(de)125mm不断(duan)发展,扩大(da)硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)尺(chi)寸(cun)提升(sheng)组(zu)件功率(lv)以获得(de)产(chan)品竞争力(li)(li)成(cheng)为个各厂(chang)商发展的(de)(de)方向(xiang),2018年晶科率(lv)先推出158.75mm,2019年隆基股份(fen)推出166mm硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian),中环(huan)(huan)股份(fen)推出210mm,同时行业(ye)也在(zai)探索180mm尺(chi)寸(cun),硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)尺(chi)寸(cun)不断(duan)超预期扩大(da)。主要原因(yin)(yin)是大(da)尺(chi)寸(cun)硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)能(neng)够显(xian)著摊薄成(cheng)本,同时电(dian)池(chi)(chi)片(pian)(pian)(pian)技术(shu)向(xiang)N型发展,加(jia)工工艺更(geng)(geng)加(jia)向(xiang)半导体行业(ye)靠(kao)近,因(yin)(yin)此摩尔(er)定律(lv)更(geng)(geng)加(jia)适用。根据(ju)中环(huan)(huan)股份(fen)的(de)(de)测(ce)算,M12相比M2电(dian)池(chi)(chi)可(ke)平(ping)均节(jie)省(sheng)0.08元/w,降幅达(da)25.6%,210mm比166mm在(zai)电(dian)站建设环(huan)(huan)节(jie)节(jie)约12%的(de)(de)BOS成(cheng)本,相应的(de)(de)LCOE降低4.1%,M12硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)相比M2硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)组(zu)件效(xiao)率(lv)上可(ke)提升(sheng)0.7%。根据(ju)下游(you)扩产(chan)情况,通(tong)威、爱(ai)旭、东方日升(sheng)、天合光能(neng)等龙头企业(ye)均在(zai)积极网(wang)(wang)信彩票(piao)大(da)尺(chi)寸(cun)电(dian)池(chi)(chi)片(pian)(pian)(pian)和(he)组(zu)件产(chan)能(neng),我们预计(ji)大(da)尺(chi)寸(cun)硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)市(shi)占率(lv)将逐(zhu)步提升(sheng),率(lv)先网(wang)(wang)信彩票(piao)的(de)(de)企业(ye)将持续收益。

N型(xing)技(ji)术(shu)(shu)加(jia)速产业化,异质(zhi)结有(you)(you)望成为(wei)(wei)行业新(xin)(xin)星。与2018年版本(ben)行业规(gui)范(fan)条(tiao)件相比,2020年征求意见稿在电(dian)池(chi)转(zhuan)换(huan)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)(lv)方(fang)面的(de)(de)要求有(you)(you)明显提(ti)升。其中,现有(you)(you)多晶(jing)(jing)硅(gui)(gui)电(dian)池(chi)和(he)(he)单晶(jing)(jing)硅(gui)(gui)电(dian)池(chi)的(de)(de)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)光电(dian)转(zhuan)换(huan)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)(lv)分(fen)别不低于(yu)19%和(he)(he)22.5%,新(xin)(xin)建(jian)及改(gai)扩(kuo)建(jian)的(de)(de)多晶(jing)(jing)硅(gui)(gui)电(dian)池(chi)和(he)(he)单晶(jing)(jing)硅(gui)(gui)电(dian)池(chi)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)光电(dian)转(zhuan)换(huan)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)(lv)要求分(fen)别不低于(yu)20%、23%,新(xin)(xin)建(jian)新(xin)(xin)规(gui)要求均(jun)(jun)已超过2019年多晶(jing)(jing)和(he)(he)单晶(jing)(jing)量产平(ping)均(jun)(jun)转(zhuan)换(huan)率(lv)(lv),新(xin)(xin)规(gui)规(gui)定的(de)(de)转(zhuan)换(huan)率(lv)(lv)下限将进一步(bu)(bu)促进电(dian)池(chi)技(ji)术(shu)(shu)进步(bu)(bu)。目前PERC电(dian)池(chi)片为(wei)(wei)市(shi)场(chang)主流(liu),2019年份(fen)额约(yue)65%,预(yu)计2021年超过70%,虽然PERC技(ji)术(shu)(shu)目前在网(wang)信彩(cai)票性能(neng)方(fang)面具有(you)(you)领先优势,但长远来(lai)看,PERC电(dian)池(chi)固有(you)(you)局限性导致效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)(lv)性能(neng)接(jie)近天花板,因此N型(xing)电(dian)池(chi)有(you)(you)望成为(wei)(wei)下一代主流(liu)技(ji)术(shu)(shu)路线,代表(biao)的(de)(de)技(ji)术(shu)(shu)路线包(bao)括:TOPCON、HJT和(he)(he)IBC。其中HJT转(zhuan)换(huan)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)(lv)较高,性能(neng)优良(liang),工艺仅有(you)(you)4-5步(bu)(bu),有(you)(you)望成为(wei)(wei)未来(lai)市(shi)场(chang)主流(liu)技(ji)术(shu)(shu)。

新技术加速商业化(hua),组(zu)件(jian)步入5.0时代(dai)。受益于大(da)(da)尺寸和双(shuang)(shuang)面(mian)高(gao)效(xiao)(xiao)电(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)片的商业化(hua)应用加速,2019年以来东方日升、天合光能(neng)、隆基、晶澳(ao)、晶科等龙(long)头(tou)企业纷纷推出(chu)500W+大(da)(da)功率(lv)组(zu)件(jian),推动光伏组(zu)件(jian)功率(lv)迈入5.0时代(dai)。大(da)(da)尺寸硅片能(neng)够(gou)显著摊薄成本,提升转(zhuan)换效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv);双(shuang)(shuang)面(mian)高(gao)效(xiao)(xiao)电(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)片增(zeng)效(xiao)(xiao)显著,利用背面(mian)吸收反射光进行发(fa)电(dian)(dian),能(neng)够(gou)提高(gao)单位发(fa)电(dian)(dian)量(liang)5%-30%,双(shuang)(shuang)面(mian)组(zu)件(jian)份(fen)额有大(da)(da)幅(fu)上升。

投(tou)资策(ce)略:2020年在行业新(xin)标准和疫情影响下,光伏产(chan)业将再次加速(su)“洗牌(pai)”,龙(long)头集(ji)中度(du)有望继续(xu)提升;大硅片、N型电池片等新(xin)技术将加速(su)商业化(hua)应(ying)用,我们看好率(lv)先网信(xin)彩(cai)票,有网信(xin)彩(cai)票竞(jing)争优势的龙(long)头企(qi)业,建议关注:中环股份(fen)、爱旭股份(fen)、隆(long)基股份(fen)、通威(wei)股份(fen)、福莱特、晶澳(ao)科(ke)技、东方日升。

风(feng)险提示:疫情影响全球光伏(fu)产(chan)业超预期,政策波动的风(feng)险,产(chan)业链价格大幅下(xia)跌风(feng)险。

1 新版(ban)规(gui)范(fan)指标全面提升,加(jia)快行(xing)业进步

行业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)门槛提高,提高行业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)发展水平。5月29日(ri),工信部(bu)印发了《光伏网(wang)信彩票行业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)规范条件(jian)(2020年(nian)本(ben)(ben))》(征求意(yi)见(jian)稿),这是自2013年(nian)首次发布以(yi)来,第三次修订版征求意(yi)见(jian)。与2018年(nian)版本(ben)(ben)对比,本(ben)(ben)次意(yi)见(jian)稿在电(dian)池组(zu)件(jian)转(zhuan)(zhuan)换效率、组(zu)件(jian)衰减率、网(wang)信彩票能耗等方(fang)面均有(you)更为严格的规定,有(you)助(zhu)于引导产业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)加快转(zhuan)(zhuan)型升级和结构(gou)调整,加强光伏企业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)技术(shu)创(chuang)新、提高产品(pin)质量、降低生产成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)、加快落后(hou)产能出清。

生(sheng)产网(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)信(xin)彩(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)与网(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)信(xin)彩(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)设立方面(mian),严格控制新(xin)上单纯扩大产能(neng)的(de)光伏(fu)网(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)信(xin)彩(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)网(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)信(xin)彩(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)。征求意见稿提出(chu),新(xin)建(jian)和改扩建(jian)多晶硅网(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)信(xin)彩(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)网(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)信(xin)彩(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao),最(zui)(zui)低(di)资本金(jin)比(bi)例为30%,其他(ta)新(xin)建(jian)和改扩建(jian)光伏(fu)网(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)信(xin)彩(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)网(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)信(xin)彩(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao),最(zui)(zui)低(di)资本金(jin)比(bi)例为20%,其中,电池网(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)信(xin)彩(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)网(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)信(xin)彩(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)投(tou)资强度不低(di)于(yu)(yu)900万元(yuan)/亩(mu),组件(jian)网(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)信(xin)彩(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)网(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)信(xin)彩(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)投(tou)资强度不低(di)于(yu)(yu)500万元(yuan)/亩(mu)。相(xiang)较于(yu)(yu)2018年版本,此次修改稿对电池组件(jian)的(de)投(tou)资强度有(you)了更高要求,有(you)助于(yu)(yu)减少小规模低(di)产能(neng)网(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)信(xin)彩(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)票(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)(piao)。

工艺技(ji)术方(fang)面,电池(chi)组(zu)件(jian)的转(zhuan)换效率显著(zhu)提升(sheng)(sheng)。征求意见稿(gao)提出,对(dui)现有光伏网信(xin)彩(cai)票企业(ye)及网信(xin)彩(cai)票产品要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)求单晶电池(chi)、组(zu)件(jian)转(zhuan)换效率要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)求分(fen)别(bie)为22.5%和19.6%,相(xiang)较(jiao)于(yu)2018年版本,分(fen)别(bie)提升(sheng)(sheng)3%、2.8%。对(dui)新建(jian)和改扩建(jian)企业(ye)及网信(xin)彩(cai)票产品要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)求单晶电池(chi)、组(zu)件(jian)转(zhuan)换效率要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)求分(fen)别(bie)为23%和20%,相(xiang)较(jiao)于(yu)2018年版本,分(fen)别(bie)提升(sheng)(sheng)2%、2.2%。

资(zi)源网(wang)(wang)(wang)信彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)利用及(ji)耗能方面,各(ge)环(huan)(huan)节耗能要求更高。征求意见(jian)稿强调,企(qi)业应依法进行(xing)环(huan)(huan)境影(ying)响评(ping)价(jia),落(luo)实环(huan)(huan)境保护(hu)设施“三(san)同(tong)时”制度要求,按规定(ding)进行(xing)竣(jun)工环(huan)(huan)境保护(hu)验(yan)收。京津冀、长三(san)角、珠三(san)角等区域新(xin)(xin)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)网(wang)(wang)(wang)信彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)禁(jin)止配套建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)设自(zi)备(bei)燃煤(mei)电(dian)站(zhan),新(xin)(xin)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)和(he)改扩(kuo)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)多晶硅(gui)网(wang)(wang)(wang)信彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)还(hai)原电(dian)耗小(xiao)(xiao)于(yu)50千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)时/千(qian)(qian)克(ke),网(wang)(wang)(wang)信彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)电(dian)耗小(xiao)(xiao)于(yu)70千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)时/千(qian)(qian)克(ke)。现(xian)有(you)(you)多晶硅(gui)片(pian)网(wang)(wang)(wang)信彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)平均(jun)网(wang)(wang)(wang)信彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)电(dian)耗小(xiao)(xiao)于(yu)25万(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)时/百(bai)万(wan)(wan)(wan)片(pian),新(xin)(xin)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)和(he)改扩(kuo)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)网(wang)(wang)(wang)信彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)小(xiao)(xiao)于(yu)20万(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)时/百(bai)万(wan)(wan)(wan)片(pian);现(xian)有(you)(you)单晶硅(gui)片(pian)网(wang)(wang)(wang)信彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)平均(jun)网(wang)(wang)(wang)信彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)电(dian)耗小(xiao)(xiao)于(yu)20万(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)时/百(bai)万(wan)(wan)(wan)片(pian),新(xin)(xin)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)和(he)改扩(kuo)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)网(wang)(wang)(wang)信彩(cai)票(piao)(piao)小(xiao)(xiao)于(yu)15万(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)时/百(bai)万(wan)(wan)(wan)片(pian)。各(ge)环(huan)(huan)节生产能耗均(jun)有(you)(you)不(bu)同(tong)水平的减少(shao)要求,促进光伏设备(bei)生产技(ji)术和(he)能力的进步。【转(zhuan)自(zi):中国电(dian)线电(dian)缆网(wang)(wang)(wang) 】


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